Avoiding the Apocalypse

The Future of the Two Koreas

Marcus Noland

Peterson Institute for International Economics

Avoiding the Apocalypse

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Pub Date: June 2000

ISBN: 9780881322781

456 Pages

Format: Paperback

List Price: $30.00£24.95

Pub Date: June 2000

ISBN: 9780881323030

456 Pages

Format: E-book

List Price: $9.99£8.95

Avoiding the Apocalypse

The Future of the Two Koreas

Marcus Noland

Peterson Institute for International Economics

On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the postwar era confronts a famine-ridden—and possibly nuclear-armed—totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study, the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. The future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and "muddling through" in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation.
Avoiding the Apocalypse is unique in its breadth and rigor and essential reading for anyone interested in the future of Korea. Joseph E. Stiglitz, Former Senior Vice President of Development Economics and Chief Economist of the World Bank
Marcus Noland has managed to integrate the political and economic stories of both North and South Korea in one most useful volume.... Noland's account offers especially timely insights and guidance. Robert B. Zoellick
[This] encyclopedic coverage of the two Korean economies... will be widely read and cited. Il SaKong, Chairman and CEO of the Institute for Global Economics and former Minister of Finance of the Republic of South Korea

About the Author

Marcus Noland, executive vice president and director of studies, has been associated with the Institute since 1985. From 2009 through 2012, he served as the Institute's deputy director. His research addresses a wide range of topics at the interstice of economics, political science, and international relations. His areas of geographical knowledge and interest include Asia and Africa where he has lived and worked, and the Middle East. In the past he has written extensively on the economies of Japan, Korea, and China, and is unique among American economists in having devoted serious scholarly effort to the problems of North Korea and the prospects for Korean unification.